Ethanol production in May rose to 847,000 barrels per day, up from 832,000 barrels per day in April. For the month, 1,102,248,000 gallons of ethanol were produced.
Ethanol imports also rose slightly to 1,638,000 gallons in May, up from 1,512,000 gallons in April.
Source : Energy Information Administration
July 31, 2010
July 30, 2010
World Bank Concludes The Impact Of Biofuels On Food Prices Not As Large As Thought
The World Bank recently released a policy research working paper on the causes of the 2006 through 2008 commodity price boom. The paper concluded that the recent spike in food prices was largely due to energy prices.
The paper also concluded that the role that biofuels played in the commodity price boom was not as large as once thought.
The paper points out that biofuels account for such a small part of the overall production of grains and oilseeds that they are unlikely to have much of an impact on prices.
The findings of this paper are similar to the findings of several other studies that have been conducted in the past.
Placing the 2006/08 Commodity Price Boom into Perspective
This paper concludes that a stronger link between energy and non-energy commodity prices is likely to be the dominant influence on developments in commodity, and especially food, markets.
The paper also concluded that the role that biofuels played in the commodity price boom was not as large as once thought.
The paper also argues that the effect of biofuels on food prices has not been as large as originally thought, but that the use of commodities by financial investors (the so-called "financialization of commodities") may have been partly responsible for the 2007/08 spike.
The paper points out that biofuels account for such a small part of the overall production of grains and oilseeds that they are unlikely to have much of an impact on prices.
Clearly US maize‐based ethanol production, and (to a lesser extent) EU
biodiesel production) affected the corresponding market balances and land use in both US maize and EU oilseeds. Yet, worldwide, biofuels account for only about 1.5 percent of the area under grains/oilseeds. This raises serious doubts about claims that biofuels account for a big shift in global demand. Even though widespread perceptions about such a shift played a big role during the recent commodity price boom, it is striking that maize prices hardly moved during the first period of increase in US ethanol production, and oilseed prices dropped when the EU increased impressively its use of biodiesel. On the other hand, prices spiked while ethanol use was slowing down in the US and biodiesel use was stabilizing in the EU.
The findings of this paper are similar to the findings of several other studies that have been conducted in the past.
Placing the 2006/08 Commodity Price Boom into Perspective
July 29, 2010
Former Panda Ethanol Hereford Plant May Have An Interested Buyer
According to the Amarillo Globe-News, Murphy Oil has shown some interest in the former Panda Ethanol plant located in Hereford, TX.
The 100 million gallon per year Hereford plant was originally planned to be completed in 2008 but was plagued by construction delays. The Panda Ethanol subsidiary that owned the plant filed for bankruptcy in January 2009. In April 2009 the plant was sold to a group of creditors for $25 million. The plant is in the final stages of completion.
Murphy discussed the idea of a property tax reduction with the Deaf Smith County Commissioner's Court on Monday.
"They haven't specifically asked for anything, but they were talking about a tax abatement," said County Judge Tom Simons. "They said they'd be back in touch. I expect a proposal or request at that time."
The 100 million gallon per year Hereford plant was originally planned to be completed in 2008 but was plagued by construction delays. The Panda Ethanol subsidiary that owned the plant filed for bankruptcy in January 2009. In April 2009 the plant was sold to a group of creditors for $25 million. The plant is in the final stages of completion.
July 27, 2010
Gilbarco Ethanol Blender Pumps Receive UL Certification
Following the June 24 announcement, UL has now extended the UL Listing to include Gilbarco Encore blenders with the flexible fuel option. These additional six models are among the first to be approved to blend mid-level ethanol/gasoline products containing up to 85% ethanol. A total of 22 Gilbarco dispenser configurations (blenders and MPDs) are now approved for use with fuels up to E85.
“Retailers want highly reliable dispensers that offer the ability to blend and dispense multiple products through each fueling position,” said Chad Johnson, marketing manager for Encore dispensers at Gilbarco Veeder-Root. “The Encore series flexible fuel dispensers help retailers meet demand for higher Ethanol fuel blends and offers the opportunity for blender of record tax incentives as well.”
The Encore S and Encore 300 dispenser models now UL Listed for use with E85 with the Flexible Fuel option include:
* X + 0 Blender (on the X hoses)
* X + 1 Blender (on the X hoses)
* Multi-Hose MPDs
* Single Hose MPD +1 (on the +1 hose)
* Blender dispenser +1 (on the +1 hose)
* Multi-Hose +1 Blender dispensers (on the +1 hose)
Source : Press Release
“Retailers want highly reliable dispensers that offer the ability to blend and dispense multiple products through each fueling position,” said Chad Johnson, marketing manager for Encore dispensers at Gilbarco Veeder-Root. “The Encore series flexible fuel dispensers help retailers meet demand for higher Ethanol fuel blends and offers the opportunity for blender of record tax incentives as well.”
The Encore S and Encore 300 dispenser models now UL Listed for use with E85 with the Flexible Fuel option include:
* X + 0 Blender (on the X hoses)
* X + 1 Blender (on the X hoses)
* Multi-Hose MPDs
* Single Hose MPD +1 (on the +1 hose)
* Blender dispenser +1 (on the +1 hose)
* Multi-Hose +1 Blender dispensers (on the +1 hose)
Source : Press Release
July 23, 2010
Gasoline Demand Falls 0.6% In The First Half Of 2010
The American Petroleum Institute (API) is reporting that gasoline deliveries in the first six months of 2010 were 0.6% lower than during the same period last year.
Reflecting the ongoing sluggish economic recovery, U.S. gasoline deliveries for the first half of 2010 averaged 8.88 million barrels per day, 0.6 percent lower than the corresponding period a year ago, according to the American Petroleum Institute’s Monthly Statistical Report for June.
July 22, 2010
Biodiesel Tax Credit Approved
H.R. 4213, the American Jobs and Closing Tax Loophole Act, that contained a one year retroactive extension of the biodiesel tax credit was passed yesterday by the Senate and was sent back to the House for another vote. The House vote took place earlier today and the President signed the bill into law today.
The bill retroactively reinstates the $1.00 per gallon tax credit that expired on December 31, 2009 through the end of 2010.
H.R. 4213 Bill Summary
White House Statement
Update 7/23/2010 - The biodiesel tax credit was stripped out of the final version of the bill. The bill was also renamed the Unemployment Compensation Extension Act.
Update 12/17/2010 - The biodiesel tax credit was retroactively extended from the date it expired through the end of 2011. Ethanol And Biodiesel Tax Credits Approved
Unemployment Compensation Extension Act
The bill retroactively reinstates the $1.00 per gallon tax credit that expired on December 31, 2009 through the end of 2010.
H.R. 4213 Bill Summary
White House Statement
Update 7/23/2010 - The biodiesel tax credit was stripped out of the final version of the bill. The bill was also renamed the Unemployment Compensation Extension Act.
Update 12/17/2010 - The biodiesel tax credit was retroactively extended from the date it expired through the end of 2011. Ethanol And Biodiesel Tax Credits Approved
Current federal unemployment benefits lapsed at the end of May 2010. The bill, H.R. 4213, the American Jobs and Closing Loopholes Act of 2010 originally contained a provision to extend unemployment benefits, as well as a number of expiring tax provisions, which passed through the House on May 28, 2010. This bill will now be used as a vehicle for unemployment benefits only.
Unemployment Compensation Extension Act
July 21, 2010
Green Plains Renewable Energy to Implement Corn Oil Extraction Technology
Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. announced today that it will implement corn oil extraction technology at its ethanol plants. The Company expects to complete the technology deployment by the end of the first quarter of 2011 and anticipates the project would enhance operating income by $15 million to $19 million per year.
"Our objective is to continue to diversify our cash flows and to de-risk our overall platform," said Todd Becker, President and Chief Executive Officer of Green Plains Renewable Energy. "This project allows us to realize additional income streams from value-added co-products. The production of 75 million to 90 million pounds of corn oil per year will generate substantial recurring free cash flows and excellent returns on invested capital."
ICM, Inc. has been awarded turn-key installation contracts at five of the Company's six plants. The expected total project cost for all plants is approximately $18 million. The Company anticipates first revenues from corn oil extraction at the Obion, Tennessee plant to occur within the next 90 days.
Green Plains has entered into a license agreement with GS CleanTech Corporation, a subsidiary of GreenShift Corporation, to utilize its patents and pending patents.
Source : Press Release
"Our objective is to continue to diversify our cash flows and to de-risk our overall platform," said Todd Becker, President and Chief Executive Officer of Green Plains Renewable Energy. "This project allows us to realize additional income streams from value-added co-products. The production of 75 million to 90 million pounds of corn oil per year will generate substantial recurring free cash flows and excellent returns on invested capital."
ICM, Inc. has been awarded turn-key installation contracts at five of the Company's six plants. The expected total project cost for all plants is approximately $18 million. The Company anticipates first revenues from corn oil extraction at the Obion, Tennessee plant to occur within the next 90 days.
Green Plains has entered into a license agreement with GS CleanTech Corporation, a subsidiary of GreenShift Corporation, to utilize its patents and pending patents.
Source : Press Release
July 20, 2010
Green Plains Renewable Energy and BioProcess Algae to Break Ground on Phase II of Algae Project
Green Plains Renewable Energy, Inc. and BioProcess Algae LLC today announced plans for Phase II of its Grower Harvester (TM) algae project located at Green Plains' Shenandoah, Iowa ethanol plant. Construction on Phase II is set to begin in the next two weeks with plans to scale the technology 20 times larger than the initial Phase I of the project.
"During Phase I, BioProcessAlgae has successfully demonstrated the scalability of the technology with a 40 times increase in growing volume from bench scale reactors to an industrial setting at our ethanol plant in Shenandoah, Iowa," said Todd Becker, President and Chief Executive Officer of Green Plains Renewable Energy. "We have experienced 100% uptime since inoculation in October 2009 and continue to harvest algae on a daily basis. With the positive results we have achieved in Phase I, we will commit additional resources and expertise to rapidly build the next phase of this exciting project. Our vision remains the same of providing a solution to sequestering industrial carbon dioxide while producing a high quality feedstock for fuel and feed."
"We are seeing good carbon dioxide to algae conversion rates and solid productivity from our Grower Harvester technology," stated Tim Burns, Chief Executive Officer of BioProcess Algae, LLC. "Phase II will build on Phase I efforts to optimize growth of algae in our reactors through improved utilization of light, more efficient carbon dioxide absorption and enhanced dewatering and water re-use. Phase II will also allow for robust verification of growth rates, energy balances, and operating expenses, which we consider to be some of the key steps to commercialization."
"We are also excited to announce that the Iowa Power Fund Board of Directors has unanimously voted in favor of awarding the project an additional $2.0 million matching grant subject to final negotiations," added Becker. "This is the first time that the fund has participated in a second round of funding and we truly appreciate the vision and commitment of the Iowa Power Fund and the leadership of Iowa Governor Chet Culver. If we achieve our goal of commercializing this technology, it will not only bring jobs to the State of Iowa, it will put Iowa on the cutting edge of providing a high quality feedstock to potentially reduce our country's dependence on foreign sources of oil."
BioProcess Algae's Phase II facility will be co-located with the Shenandoah ethanol plant and linked to the plant's carbon dioxide and waste heat for its feedstock. The expansion is expected to cost $4.5 million and is scheduled to be operational by the end of 2010. The cost of the Phase II project will be shared by the joint venture partners and the matching grant provided by the Iowa Power Fund.
Source : Press Release
"During Phase I, BioProcessAlgae has successfully demonstrated the scalability of the technology with a 40 times increase in growing volume from bench scale reactors to an industrial setting at our ethanol plant in Shenandoah, Iowa," said Todd Becker, President and Chief Executive Officer of Green Plains Renewable Energy. "We have experienced 100% uptime since inoculation in October 2009 and continue to harvest algae on a daily basis. With the positive results we have achieved in Phase I, we will commit additional resources and expertise to rapidly build the next phase of this exciting project. Our vision remains the same of providing a solution to sequestering industrial carbon dioxide while producing a high quality feedstock for fuel and feed."
"We are seeing good carbon dioxide to algae conversion rates and solid productivity from our Grower Harvester technology," stated Tim Burns, Chief Executive Officer of BioProcess Algae, LLC. "Phase II will build on Phase I efforts to optimize growth of algae in our reactors through improved utilization of light, more efficient carbon dioxide absorption and enhanced dewatering and water re-use. Phase II will also allow for robust verification of growth rates, energy balances, and operating expenses, which we consider to be some of the key steps to commercialization."
"We are also excited to announce that the Iowa Power Fund Board of Directors has unanimously voted in favor of awarding the project an additional $2.0 million matching grant subject to final negotiations," added Becker. "This is the first time that the fund has participated in a second round of funding and we truly appreciate the vision and commitment of the Iowa Power Fund and the leadership of Iowa Governor Chet Culver. If we achieve our goal of commercializing this technology, it will not only bring jobs to the State of Iowa, it will put Iowa on the cutting edge of providing a high quality feedstock to potentially reduce our country's dependence on foreign sources of oil."
BioProcess Algae's Phase II facility will be co-located with the Shenandoah ethanol plant and linked to the plant's carbon dioxide and waste heat for its feedstock. The expansion is expected to cost $4.5 million and is scheduled to be operational by the end of 2010. The cost of the Phase II project will be shared by the joint venture partners and the matching grant provided by the Iowa Power Fund.
Source : Press Release
July 19, 2010
Ethanol Pipeline Feasibility Study Released
The Department of Energy released a feasibility study today for a dedicated ethanol pipeline from the Midwest to the East Coast.
Dedicated Ethanol Pipeline Feasibility Study
The study finds that in spite of the documented challenges and risks, a profitable, dedicated ethanol pipeline is feasible under certain scenarios. A pipeline would enhance the fuels delivery infrastructure, reduce congestion of rail, truck, and barge transportation, and would reduce greenhouse gas emissions when compared to current delivery methods. The faster product delivery cycles, more reliable delivery schedules, and increased safety will enhance the flexibility to accommodate any significant expansions in ethanol production and demand in the future.
Dedicated Ethanol Pipeline Feasibility Study
Study Estimates The GHG Emissions Of Petroleum Due To Military Operations
Two University of Nebraska researchers, Adam J. Liska and Richard K. Perrin, have published a new study in Environment Magazine that measures the GHG emissions associated with military operations necessary to protect international oil trade.
According to their numbers the GHG emissions associated with military operations is quite large.
That is, according to the authors, roughly equivalent to the 14 to 27 g CO2e per MJ currently attributed to corn ethanol energy due to consequential indirect land use change.
It is an interesting study. Not only are there substantial emissions associated with the military operations necessary to secure foreign oil, but there are also large monetary costs.
The authors note that there is considerable uncertainty in modeling the indirect emissions for petroleum just as there is in indirect land use assessments for corn ethanol. I am sure that this is just the beginning of a much larger debate on the true emissions of petroleum. But it is an important debate to have if we are going to require that biofuels meet certain emissions reductions compared to petroleum fuels.
Securing Foreign Oil: A Case for Including Military Operations in the Climate Change Impact of Fuels
In order to have a balanced assessment of the climate change impacts of substituting biofuels for gasoline, a comparison of all direct and indirect emissions from both types of fuel is required. The analysis presented here contributes to a more complete assessment of total GHG emissions related to gasoline use, by including emissions from military activities related to the protection and acquisition of foreign crude oil.
According to their numbers the GHG emissions associated with military operations is quite large.
The elimination of Middle East oil imports would allow cessation of military oil security activity, equivalent to a 20-percent reduction in conventional U.S. military activity and emissions, which in turn is equivalent to 17.5 g CO2e per MJ of gasoline energy now imported from the Middle East
That is, according to the authors, roughly equivalent to the 14 to 27 g CO2e per MJ currently attributed to corn ethanol energy due to consequential indirect land use change.
It is an interesting study. Not only are there substantial emissions associated with the military operations necessary to secure foreign oil, but there are also large monetary costs.
Several studies have estimated the fraction of military expenditures attributable to securing oil supplies, from which we may be able to infer the fraction of GHG emissions. These estimates suggest that $27 to $138 billion dollars is spent annually by the U.S. military for protection of Middle Eastern maritime oil transit routes and oil infrastructure, with an average of $84 billion dollars per year.
The authors note that there is considerable uncertainty in modeling the indirect emissions for petroleum just as there is in indirect land use assessments for corn ethanol. I am sure that this is just the beginning of a much larger debate on the true emissions of petroleum. But it is an important debate to have if we are going to require that biofuels meet certain emissions reductions compared to petroleum fuels.
Securing Foreign Oil: A Case for Including Military Operations in the Climate Change Impact of Fuels
Solazyme Delivers 100% Algal-Derived Renewable Jet Fuel to U.S. Navy
Solazyme, Inc. is helping the U.S. military move closer to powering its planes, ships, tanks and trucks on renewable fuel and has delivered of 1,500 gallons of 100% algae-based jet fuel for the U.S. Navy's testing and certification program. The U.S. Navy has previously announced the objective to operate at least 50% of its fleet on clean, renewable fuel by 2020, and the delivery fulfills a contract awarded to Solazyme by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) in September 2009.
Solazyme, a renewable oil and green bioproducts company and leader in algal biotechnology, manufactured the world's first 100% algal-based jet fuel through its proprietary fermentation process in collaboration with renewable jet fuel processing technology from Honeywell's UOP. Solazyme's renewable Solajet™HRJ-5 is designed to meet all of the requirements for Naval renewable aviation fuel. In preliminary tests, it also meets the fuel requirements of the U.S. Air Force and meets the standards for commercial jet fuel.
"It has been an honor to work with both the Navy and DESC/DLA to provide the first microbial derived advanced biojet fuel that will aid the military's transition away from fossil fuel and toward more secure, renewable and reliable sources," said Jonathan Wolfson, CEO, Solazyme. "The military has recognized the national security imperative of creating alternative energy solutions, and this project reflects their leadership and vision in supporting new ways to power our Department of Defense."
Solazyme's algal fuel technology will help the DoD reduce its carbon footprint, minimize reliance on foreign oil, combat global climate change and pioneer the development of clean and renewable energy sources for national energy security.
Verified through external lifecycle analyses, Solazyme's fuels provide an 85% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to traditional fossil fuels. Prior to delivery to the Navy, the fuel was tested by an independent testing laboratory, and met all of the Navy's 19 rigorous requirements for renewable hydrotreated jet fuel. In addition, the fuel meets the proposed ASTM D 7566 specification for Aviation Turbine Fuels containing synthesized hydrocarbons, which is a critical milestone for providing fuels not only for the military, but also for the civilian market.
Source : Press Release
Solazyme, a renewable oil and green bioproducts company and leader in algal biotechnology, manufactured the world's first 100% algal-based jet fuel through its proprietary fermentation process in collaboration with renewable jet fuel processing technology from Honeywell's UOP. Solazyme's renewable Solajet™HRJ-5 is designed to meet all of the requirements for Naval renewable aviation fuel. In preliminary tests, it also meets the fuel requirements of the U.S. Air Force and meets the standards for commercial jet fuel.
"It has been an honor to work with both the Navy and DESC/DLA to provide the first microbial derived advanced biojet fuel that will aid the military's transition away from fossil fuel and toward more secure, renewable and reliable sources," said Jonathan Wolfson, CEO, Solazyme. "The military has recognized the national security imperative of creating alternative energy solutions, and this project reflects their leadership and vision in supporting new ways to power our Department of Defense."
Solazyme's algal fuel technology will help the DoD reduce its carbon footprint, minimize reliance on foreign oil, combat global climate change and pioneer the development of clean and renewable energy sources for national energy security.
Verified through external lifecycle analyses, Solazyme's fuels provide an 85% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to traditional fossil fuels. Prior to delivery to the Navy, the fuel was tested by an independent testing laboratory, and met all of the Navy's 19 rigorous requirements for renewable hydrotreated jet fuel. In addition, the fuel meets the proposed ASTM D 7566 specification for Aviation Turbine Fuels containing synthesized hydrocarbons, which is a critical milestone for providing fuels not only for the military, but also for the civilian market.
Source : Press Release
July 18, 2010
iPhone App For Finding E85 Locations
E85 fuel? There’s an app for that. The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) is proud to announce the new iPhone application used to help flex-fuel vehicle (FFV) drivers access the latest, most accurately geo-coded E85 stations throughout the United States. Developed by Digital Laundry, a Customer Experience Consultancy, this application will also work on the iTouch and iPad.
The E85 FuelFinder allows iPhone and iPad users all over the country to map out E85 (85% ethanol, 15% gasoline) stations most accessible to them, no matter their current location or destination. With the database embedded in the iPhone itself, this application is useful, even if the user is in a no-service zone. In addition, users have the ability to add a station as a “favorite” for quick and easy accessibility, view or update the price per gallon of E85 fuel at specific locations, access driving directions through Google maps, and directly contact a specific station via telephone. The cost of the application is $1.99, which you can download here, and is also available on the App Store.
The E85 FuelFinder allows iPhone and iPad users all over the country to map out E85 (85% ethanol, 15% gasoline) stations most accessible to them, no matter their current location or destination. With the database embedded in the iPhone itself, this application is useful, even if the user is in a no-service zone. In addition, users have the ability to add a station as a “favorite” for quick and easy accessibility, view or update the price per gallon of E85 fuel at specific locations, access driving directions through Google maps, and directly contact a specific station via telephone. The cost of the application is $1.99, which you can download here, and is also available on the App Store.
July 15, 2010
Ethanol Industry Groups At Odds Over Ethanol Tax Credit
Growth Energy, a coalition of U.S. ethanol supporters, today called for the redirection and eventual phasing out of government support for ethanol in return for a level playing field – infrastructure investments that will create competition in the fuels market and give consumers true freedom to choose their fuel.
The “Fueling Freedom” plan calls for the phasing out of current ethanol supports over time, by redirecting a portion of those funds to build out the infrastructure for the distribution and use of ethanol, and shifting the remaining portion away from the oil companies to opening the market. The primary elements of the plan include:
Growth Energy’s Fueling Freedom plan, once implemented, would build out the infrastructure in the United States to create a path that leads to a genuinely free market – an open market that is free of government supports. Redirecting monies currently paid to oil companies to blend ethanol into gasoline toward infrastructure improvements would enable consumers to choose between gasoline and renewable, homegrown ethanol.
Other industry groups have come out in support of an extension of the current tax credits.
The American Coalition for Ethanol, the American Farm Bureau Federation, the National Corn Growers Association, the National Sorghum Producers, and the Renewable Fuels Association today reaffirmed their support for two identical pieces of legislation that would extend current ethanol tax incentives through 2015.
The “Fueling Freedom” plan calls for the phasing out of current ethanol supports over time, by redirecting a portion of those funds to build out the infrastructure for the distribution and use of ethanol, and shifting the remaining portion away from the oil companies to opening the market. The primary elements of the plan include:
- Funds currently going to the oil industry as an incentive for blending ethanol into gasoline (the VEETC) would be redirected to provide backing for the build out of distribution infrastructure for ethanol – such as tax credits for retailers to install 200,000 blender pumps and federal backing of ethanol pipelines. This will provide Americans the access to choose ethanol in an open and free market, and would allow for the elimination of the tax supports over time in exchange for that level playing field.
- Requiring that all automobiles sold in the U.S. be flex-fuel vehicles – as many as 120 million. This requires no additional cost to taxpayers and a minimal cost (about $120 per vehicle) to vehicle manufacturers.
Growth Energy’s Fueling Freedom plan, once implemented, would build out the infrastructure in the United States to create a path that leads to a genuinely free market – an open market that is free of government supports. Redirecting monies currently paid to oil companies to blend ethanol into gasoline toward infrastructure improvements would enable consumers to choose between gasoline and renewable, homegrown ethanol.
Other industry groups have come out in support of an extension of the current tax credits.
The American Coalition for Ethanol, the American Farm Bureau Federation, the National Corn Growers Association, the National Sorghum Producers, and the Renewable Fuels Association today reaffirmed their support for two identical pieces of legislation that would extend current ethanol tax incentives through 2015.
BP to acquire Verenium’s cellulosic biofuels business
BP and Verenium Corporation today announced an agreement for BP Biofuels North America to acquire Verenium’s cellulosic biofuels business, including the Company’s facilities in Jennings, LA and San Diego, CA for $98.3 million. Verenium will retain its commercial enzyme business, including its biofuels enzymes products and have the right to develop its own lignocellulosic enzyme program. Verenium will also retain select R&D capabilities, as well as rights to access select biofuels technology developed by BP using the technology it is acquiring from Verenium through this agreement.
The major terms of this agreement include: BP will acquire the following:
In addition, BP would retain scientists and technologists needed to continue the biofuels development program.
Verenium will retain / receive the following:
BP will become the sole investor in Vercipia Biofuels, a 50-50 joint venture formed by BP and Verenium in February 2009, and will independently manage all of Vercipia’s activities going forward. Similarly, Galaxy Biofuels, a 50-50 joint development company owned by BP and Verenium, will be owned 100% by BP. This transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2010.
Source : Press Release
The major terms of this agreement include: BP will acquire the following:
- Jennings, LA facilities, including the pilot plant and the demonstration-scale facility as well as the San Diego, CA R&D facilities;
- Cellulosic biofuels technology and related IP; and
- Cellulosic enzyme technology and related IP.
In addition, BP would retain scientists and technologists needed to continue the biofuels development program.
Verenium will retain / receive the following:
- The core commercial enzyme business, including the personnel and supporting technology required to develop the business, including for applications in the biofuels segment;
- $98.3 million payment from BP;
- $10.8 million in cash (currently restricted) to be released upon assignment of its lease for the San Diego facility to BP;
- The ability to access select biofuels products developed by BP using the technology it is acquiring from Verenium; and
- The ability to transition out of the San Diego, CA facility over the next two years.
BP will become the sole investor in Vercipia Biofuels, a 50-50 joint venture formed by BP and Verenium in February 2009, and will independently manage all of Vercipia’s activities going forward. Similarly, Galaxy Biofuels, a 50-50 joint development company owned by BP and Verenium, will be owned 100% by BP. This transaction is expected to close in the third quarter of 2010.
Source : Press Release
July 14, 2010
ExxonMobil and Synthetic Genomics Inc. Advance Algae Biofuels Program
Exxon Mobil Corporation and Synthetic Genomics Inc. (SGI) announced the opening of a greenhouse facility today enabling the next level of research and testing in their algae biofuels program.
The new facility, opened at a ceremony at SGI headquarters in La Jolla, CA, moves the project from a laboratory setting to an environment that better reflects real-world conditions for algae production. SGI and ExxonMobil researchers are using the facility to test whether large-scale quantities of affordable fuel can be produced from algae.
"This is an important day in the early stages of our development program as we test the hypothesis that algae biofuels could become commercially viable and make a meaningful contribution to meeting future energy demand," said Dr. Emil Jacobs, vice president of research and development for ExxonMobil.
In the greenhouse facility, researchers from ExxonMobil and SGI will examine different growth systems for algae, such as open ponds and closed photobioreactors. They will evaluate various algae, including both natural and engineered strains, in these different growth systems under a wide range of conditions, including varying temperatures, light levels and nutrient concentrations. They will also conduct research into other aspects of the algae fuel production process, including harvesting and bio-oil recovery operations.
"The greenhouse is the next important step in our alliance as we comprehensively explore algae as a source of renewable biofuels. The team has already made great strides in evaluating various strains and growth conditions for algae and we are eager to continue and expand this important research as we plan for the next stages of scale up," said J. Craig Venter, Ph.D., founder and CEO for SGI.
The next major milestone in the program, expected in mid-2011, is the opening of an outdoor test facility.
If research and development milestones are successfully met, ExxonMobil expects to spend more than $600 million on the algae biofuels program over the next decade, $300 million of which will be allocated to SGI.
Source : Press Release
The new facility, opened at a ceremony at SGI headquarters in La Jolla, CA, moves the project from a laboratory setting to an environment that better reflects real-world conditions for algae production. SGI and ExxonMobil researchers are using the facility to test whether large-scale quantities of affordable fuel can be produced from algae.
"This is an important day in the early stages of our development program as we test the hypothesis that algae biofuels could become commercially viable and make a meaningful contribution to meeting future energy demand," said Dr. Emil Jacobs, vice president of research and development for ExxonMobil.
In the greenhouse facility, researchers from ExxonMobil and SGI will examine different growth systems for algae, such as open ponds and closed photobioreactors. They will evaluate various algae, including both natural and engineered strains, in these different growth systems under a wide range of conditions, including varying temperatures, light levels and nutrient concentrations. They will also conduct research into other aspects of the algae fuel production process, including harvesting and bio-oil recovery operations.
"The greenhouse is the next important step in our alliance as we comprehensively explore algae as a source of renewable biofuels. The team has already made great strides in evaluating various strains and growth conditions for algae and we are eager to continue and expand this important research as we plan for the next stages of scale up," said J. Craig Venter, Ph.D., founder and CEO for SGI.
The next major milestone in the program, expected in mid-2011, is the opening of an outdoor test facility.
If research and development milestones are successfully met, ExxonMobil expects to spend more than $600 million on the algae biofuels program over the next decade, $300 million of which will be allocated to SGI.
Source : Press Release
July 13, 2010
Osage Bio Energy Ethanol Plant To Capture Carbon Dioxide
Praxair, Inc. has signed a 15-year contract with Osage Bio Products, an affiliate of Osage Bio Energy, for the purchase of carbon dioxide that is produced from Osage’s barley-to-ethanol bio-processing operations in Hopewell, Va. Carbon dioxide is a by-product of ethanol fermentation.
The carbon dioxide will be purified and liquefied to produce up to 450 tons per day from Praxair’s new plant, scheduled for start up in the fourth quarter of 2011. The carbon dioxide will be used primarily in food freezing and processing, and for beverage applications.
“Our intention is to build a world-class facility at the Osage Bio Energy plant in Hopewell, which will help us better serve our growing customer base in the East Region,” said Ted Trumpp, vice president, East Region, for Praxair’s North American Industrial Gases business unit.
“Biogenic carbon dioxide from our fermentation process is a wonderful source for food grade applications,” said Craig Shealy, president and CEO of Osage Bio Energy. “Praxair is a top-tier industrial gas company, and we are excited to work with them to co-locate a plant on our site.”
Osage Bio Energy’s first plant, Appomattox Bio Energy, located in Hopewell, Va., is targeted to start up in August 2010. When complete, it will be the first commercial scale barley-to-ethanol processing plant in the United States, producing 65 million gallons of ethanol per year.
Source : Press Release
The carbon dioxide will be purified and liquefied to produce up to 450 tons per day from Praxair’s new plant, scheduled for start up in the fourth quarter of 2011. The carbon dioxide will be used primarily in food freezing and processing, and for beverage applications.
“Our intention is to build a world-class facility at the Osage Bio Energy plant in Hopewell, which will help us better serve our growing customer base in the East Region,” said Ted Trumpp, vice president, East Region, for Praxair’s North American Industrial Gases business unit.
“Biogenic carbon dioxide from our fermentation process is a wonderful source for food grade applications,” said Craig Shealy, president and CEO of Osage Bio Energy. “Praxair is a top-tier industrial gas company, and we are excited to work with them to co-locate a plant on our site.”
Osage Bio Energy’s first plant, Appomattox Bio Energy, located in Hopewell, Va., is targeted to start up in August 2010. When complete, it will be the first commercial scale barley-to-ethanol processing plant in the United States, producing 65 million gallons of ethanol per year.
Source : Press Release
July 12, 2010
Alion Science Evaluates Pennycress For Biofuels Production
Alion Science and Technology has been awarded a contract from the Biotechnology Research and Development Center (BRDC) to develop models that will assess options for processing pennycress seeds into biofuels. Pennycress is a potentially attractive biofuel source crop that produces twice the oil per acre as soybeans but can be grown by U.S. farmers in the winter and harvested in the spring between segments of a typical corn/soybean rotation. It takes full advantage of existing farm infrastructure without displacing any food crops.
The contract from BRDC is funded by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in support of Arvens Technology Inc.(ATI), which plans to establish geographically dispersed, advanced biofuel production plants using pennycress seeds. Under the contract, Alion will develop a set of models that will be used to assess the feasibility of various processing technologies, simulate overall process performance and provide an economic evaluation of the costs related to the construction and operation of pennycress processing plants.
Harvested pennycress seeds contain about 36% oil and after oil extraction and conversion to biodiesel, the remaining material, called presscake, can be burned, gasified or pyrolyzed to bio-oil. Both the extracted oil and the presscake become value-added products. It is estimated that an acre of pennycress can produce 95 gallons of biodiesel and another 95 gallons of bio-oil. In addition to its high yield, it is easy to grow and helps prevent soil erosion.
“Alion’s development of these models will lead to an analytical tool that will help determine specific design features for pennycress processing plants and how to best apply development dollars,” said Damon Griggs, Alion Senior Vice President and Manager of the Business Solutions Group. “Our scientists and engineers have performed similar analyses for the chemical and pharmaceutical industries, and our process engineering and manufacturing expertise makes us ideally suited to perform this work.
“The results of Alion’s work will help establish the suitability of pennycress for production of biofuels by guiding the selection of equipment and process options,” Griggs explained. “This work is also important to the agricultural industry as pennycress can potentially generate over $200 million annually in new farm income per million acres cultivated.”
Alion’s work will be conducted at offices near Tulsa, OK, and Chicago. Similar studies are being proposed to other clients for other feedstock and process combinations to help them evaluate and optimize the economics of their alternative energy strategies, Griggs said.
Source : Press Release
The contract from BRDC is funded by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in support of Arvens Technology Inc.(ATI), which plans to establish geographically dispersed, advanced biofuel production plants using pennycress seeds. Under the contract, Alion will develop a set of models that will be used to assess the feasibility of various processing technologies, simulate overall process performance and provide an economic evaluation of the costs related to the construction and operation of pennycress processing plants.
Harvested pennycress seeds contain about 36% oil and after oil extraction and conversion to biodiesel, the remaining material, called presscake, can be burned, gasified or pyrolyzed to bio-oil. Both the extracted oil and the presscake become value-added products. It is estimated that an acre of pennycress can produce 95 gallons of biodiesel and another 95 gallons of bio-oil. In addition to its high yield, it is easy to grow and helps prevent soil erosion.
“Alion’s development of these models will lead to an analytical tool that will help determine specific design features for pennycress processing plants and how to best apply development dollars,” said Damon Griggs, Alion Senior Vice President and Manager of the Business Solutions Group. “Our scientists and engineers have performed similar analyses for the chemical and pharmaceutical industries, and our process engineering and manufacturing expertise makes us ideally suited to perform this work.
“The results of Alion’s work will help establish the suitability of pennycress for production of biofuels by guiding the selection of equipment and process options,” Griggs explained. “This work is also important to the agricultural industry as pennycress can potentially generate over $200 million annually in new farm income per million acres cultivated.”
Alion’s work will be conducted at offices near Tulsa, OK, and Chicago. Similar studies are being proposed to other clients for other feedstock and process combinations to help them evaluate and optimize the economics of their alternative energy strategies, Griggs said.
Source : Press Release
EPA Proposes 2011 Renewable Fuel Standards
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) today proposed the 2011 percentage standards for the four fuels categories under the agency’s Renewable Fuel Standard program, known as RFS2.
The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) established the annual renewable fuel volume targets, reaching an overall level of 36 billion gallons in 2022. To achieve these volumes, EPA calculates a percentage-based standard for the following year. Based on the standard, each refiner, importer and non-oxygenate blender of gasoline determines the minimum volume of renewable fuel that it must ensure is used in its transportation fuel.
The proposed 2011 overall volumes and standards are:
Biomass-based diesel (0.80 billion gallons; 0.68 percent)
Advanced biofuels (1.35 billion gallons; 0.77 percent)
Cellulosic biofuels (5 – 17.1 million gallons; 0.004 – 0.015 percent)
Total renewable fuels (13.95 billion gallons; 7.95 percent)
Based on analysis of market availability, EPA is proposing a 2011 cellulosic volume that is lower than the EISA target. EPA will continue to evaluate the market as it works to finalize the cellulosic standard in the coming months. Overall, EPA remains optimistic that the commercial availability of cellulosic biofuel will continue to grow in the years ahead.
EPA is also proposing changes to the RFS2 regulations that would potentially apply to renewable fuel producers who use canola oil, grain sorghum, pulpwood, or palm oil as a feedstock. This program rule would allow the fuel produced by those feedstocks dating back to July 1, 2010 be used for compliance should EPA determine in a future rulemaking that such fuels meet certain greenhouse gas reduction thresholds.
The second change would set criteria for foreign feedstocks to be treated like domestic feedstocks in terms of the documentation needed to prove that they can be used to make qualifying renewable fuel under the RFS2 program.
EPA is seeking public comment on the renewable fuel standards and the proposed changes to the RFS2 regulations, which are due 30 days following publication of the proposed rule in the Federal Register.
Source : EPA Press Release
The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) established the annual renewable fuel volume targets, reaching an overall level of 36 billion gallons in 2022. To achieve these volumes, EPA calculates a percentage-based standard for the following year. Based on the standard, each refiner, importer and non-oxygenate blender of gasoline determines the minimum volume of renewable fuel that it must ensure is used in its transportation fuel.
The proposed 2011 overall volumes and standards are:
Biomass-based diesel (0.80 billion gallons; 0.68 percent)
Advanced biofuels (1.35 billion gallons; 0.77 percent)
Cellulosic biofuels (5 – 17.1 million gallons; 0.004 – 0.015 percent)
Total renewable fuels (13.95 billion gallons; 7.95 percent)
Based on analysis of market availability, EPA is proposing a 2011 cellulosic volume that is lower than the EISA target. EPA will continue to evaluate the market as it works to finalize the cellulosic standard in the coming months. Overall, EPA remains optimistic that the commercial availability of cellulosic biofuel will continue to grow in the years ahead.
EPA is also proposing changes to the RFS2 regulations that would potentially apply to renewable fuel producers who use canola oil, grain sorghum, pulpwood, or palm oil as a feedstock. This program rule would allow the fuel produced by those feedstocks dating back to July 1, 2010 be used for compliance should EPA determine in a future rulemaking that such fuels meet certain greenhouse gas reduction thresholds.
The second change would set criteria for foreign feedstocks to be treated like domestic feedstocks in terms of the documentation needed to prove that they can be used to make qualifying renewable fuel under the RFS2 program.
EPA is seeking public comment on the renewable fuel standards and the proposed changes to the RFS2 regulations, which are due 30 days following publication of the proposed rule in the Federal Register.
Source : EPA Press Release
Ethanol From Paper Mill Waste
Dr. Harry Cullinan, director of the Alabama Center for Paper and Bioresources Engineering, along with professor of chemical engineering Dr. Yoon Y. Lee, senior research fellow Dr. Sung-Hoon Yoon and several graduate students have partnered with Masada Resource Group to produce ethanol from the waste of pulp and paper mills.
The researchers have developed a way to break down fiber found in wood to make ethanol.
According to Cullinan, Auburn’s patent for the technologies to make the ethanol has three components:
- Extracting the hemicellulose (a fiber found in wood chips) from the wood using a simple hot water method.
- Combining those sugars with the sugars from the sludge to produce ethanol.
- And manufacturing the enzyme needed to do the fermentation to convert the hemicellulose into ethanol.
Cullinan said that if this technology was adopted in all the paper/pulp mills in the country, it had the potential to produce hundreds of millions of gallons of ethanol.
Source : Opelika-Auburn News
The researchers have developed a way to break down fiber found in wood to make ethanol.
According to Cullinan, Auburn’s patent for the technologies to make the ethanol has three components:
- Extracting the hemicellulose (a fiber found in wood chips) from the wood using a simple hot water method.
- Combining those sugars with the sugars from the sludge to produce ethanol.
- And manufacturing the enzyme needed to do the fermentation to convert the hemicellulose into ethanol.
Cullinan said that if this technology was adopted in all the paper/pulp mills in the country, it had the potential to produce hundreds of millions of gallons of ethanol.
Source : Opelika-Auburn News
July 09, 2010
College of William and Mary Harvests Algae From Polluted Lake
Gene Tracy guided a raft ashore at Lake Matoaka. But unlike the colonists who settled this land, his quarry wasn't food or shelter — it was algae.
The College of William and Mary, in collaboration with industry and other universities, plans to turn the fish-killing algae into biodiesel fuel for cars, airplanes, and just about anything else that guzzles gasoline.
On Thursday, Tracy, a physics professor, along with other university officials and a handful of students, worked to assemble the machine — or flume — tasked with the job.
A rectangle-shaped floating dock with its midsection removed, the flume acts as a channel that will trap nitrogen, phosphorous and other nutrients that form oxygen-deprived dead zones in the lake and Chesapeake Bay watershed.
"Think of it as a rain-gutter-type device," said Karl Kuschner, the university's research scientist leading the effort. "We'll be creating a 40-foot long hole in the water."
The flume, which cost about $80,000 in parts and labor, has the potential to remove 20 percent of the lake's pollution, Kuschner said. Under the right conditions, it will produce six to eight gallons of dry algae every two weeks.
Too small scale to solve the nation's energy woes, the project will help scientists learn how to turn algae into biodiesel in a cost-effective manner, Kuschner said.
Source : Daily Press
The College of William and Mary, in collaboration with industry and other universities, plans to turn the fish-killing algae into biodiesel fuel for cars, airplanes, and just about anything else that guzzles gasoline.
On Thursday, Tracy, a physics professor, along with other university officials and a handful of students, worked to assemble the machine — or flume — tasked with the job.
A rectangle-shaped floating dock with its midsection removed, the flume acts as a channel that will trap nitrogen, phosphorous and other nutrients that form oxygen-deprived dead zones in the lake and Chesapeake Bay watershed.
"Think of it as a rain-gutter-type device," said Karl Kuschner, the university's research scientist leading the effort. "We'll be creating a 40-foot long hole in the water."
The flume, which cost about $80,000 in parts and labor, has the potential to remove 20 percent of the lake's pollution, Kuschner said. Under the right conditions, it will produce six to eight gallons of dry algae every two weeks.
Too small scale to solve the nation's energy woes, the project will help scientists learn how to turn algae into biodiesel in a cost-effective manner, Kuschner said.
Source : Daily Press
July 08, 2010
EPA Issues Status Update On E15 Waiver Request
The EPA recently issued a status update on the E15 waiver request.
What is the status of the E-15 waiver request?
That is pretty much the same thing that the assistant administrator, Gina McCarthy said in a recent speech. The interesting thing though is the timeline. Last year the EPA issued a notice on the waiver request.
If each vehicle requires 6-9 months of testing and the first series of tests is expected to be done at the end of September 2010, that would mean that those vehicles hadn't even started testing before the original deadline had passed.
What is the status of the E-15 waiver request?
- In response to the E-15 waiver request, EPA worked with DOE, who undertook a multi-million dollar testing regimen that will provide the information EPA needs to make a sound, technically correct and legally supportable decision.
- Consistent with national protocols and in conformance with engineering best practices, the testing program has included hundreds of vehicles, including 82 vehicles undergoing full useful life testing. And in order to accelerate timetables and collect sufficient lifetime emissions performance data, full useful life testing of vehicles is ongoing 24 hours a day at essentially all of the independent test facilities in North America. Under this accelerated protocol each vehicle requires testing for 6-9 months.
- By the end of this September, DOE testing on newer vehicles (covering the 2007 and younger motor vehicle fleet) will be completed and EPA plans to take action on the waiver request regarding the use of E-15 in those vehicles. If those test results support E15, then EPA will also propose a labeling rule at that time on fuel dispensing equipment.
- In November, DOE testing on vehicles covering the 2001-2006 model years will also be complete and EPA can then make a further determination on the use of E-15 for these vehicles. Again, if these tests are positive, then the label will be adjusted to reflect the expanded use of E-15 before the rule is finalized.
- It’s also important to remember that there are a number of additional steps that must be completed – many of which are not under EPA or DOE control – to allow the sale and distribution of E-15. These include but are not limited to: testing on dispensing equipment; changes to state laws to allow for the use of E15; and completion of the fuels registration process by industry.
That is pretty much the same thing that the assistant administrator, Gina McCarthy said in a recent speech. The interesting thing though is the timeline. Last year the EPA issued a notice on the waiver request.
EPA has received a request for a waiver under section 211(f)(4) of the Clean Air Act for ethanol blends up to 15 volume percent (E15). The Administrator must make a decision on the waiver application within 270 days of receipt. Since the application was received on March 6, 2009, it must be granted or denied by December 1, 2009.
If each vehicle requires 6-9 months of testing and the first series of tests is expected to be done at the end of September 2010, that would mean that those vehicles hadn't even started testing before the original deadline had passed.
July 06, 2010
Partial Waiver For E15 Could Come In September
There is an interesting article on NACS Online on the possibility of the EPA granting a partial waiver for the use of E15 in 2007 and newer vehicles in September. The article also says that a decision on 2001 and newer vehicles could come in November.
Read the whole article here.
On July 1, Gina McCarthy, the agency’s assistant administrator for air and radiation, told attendees at a future of renewable energy conference that the EPA waiver could be granted in September.
“Now I will tell you that we are very confident, because of the way newer vehicles are constructed and engineered, that E15 will be amenable for use in newer vehicles,” she said. “As the vehicle gets older, we have less certainty about the use of E15.”
Results from E15 testing by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) on model year 2007 cars will be finished by mid-September, which will let EPA make a ruling on those vehicles. A decision on E15 in model year 2001 and newer vehicles will likely be forthcoming by Nov. 30, as DOE testing on those vehicles will be finished by then.
“We are very confident that in November, we can make a waiver decision on the use of E15 in those vehicles as well,” said McCarthy. “We are very positive about the outlook, but we're waiting for that data to come forward.”
Read the whole article here.
Illinois E85 Coupon Program
The American Lung Association in Illinois, General Motors, Ford Motor Company and the Illinois Corn Marketing Board have teamed up to offer Flex Fuel Vehicle (FFV) owners a coupon for $10.00 towards the purchase of E85 at participating stations in Illinois. The goal is to educate FFV owners on the benefits of E85 and to allow them to try E85 in their vehicles.
Illinois E85 Coupon Program
Illinois E85 Coupon Program
July 04, 2010
Will NASCAR Switch To Ethanol Blend In 2011?
The CEO of NASCAR, Brian France cast some doubt as to whether Nascar will be going to an ethanol blend in 2011 at a press conference at the Daytona International Speedway on Friday. FOX News had reported in early May that NASCAR would be going to an E15 ethanol blend in 2011. Below are the comments he made on Friday as reported by Racing Today.
“Ethanol, I don’t know that we’ll see it in 2011 as a biofuel,” France said. “It’s certainly an option that is interesting.
“But it’s important for us to evolve the fuel source in the national divisions over time. We’ll do that with Sunoco for sure, trying to respect and value their set of rights.”
July 03, 2010
Ethanol Production and the Gulf of Mexico Dead Zone
The issue of the Gulf of Mexico Dead Zone always comes up at this time of year. It is around this time every year that the predictions for the size of the dead zone come out. And over the last few years it is also around this time that talk of the relationship between ethanol production and the size of the dead zone ramps up.
This year is no exception. I have seen several articles in the news suggesting that the size of the dead zone is growing because of ethanol production. I have looked at the numbers before and honestly it is hard to make a case that the dead zone is growing and even harder to make the case that ethanol is having an effect. First let's look at the size of the dead zone over the last few years.
2009 - 3000 square miles
2008 - 7988 square miles
2007 - 7903 square miles
2006 - 6662 square miles
2005 - 4564 square miles
2004 - 5800 square miles
2003 - 3220 square miles
2002 - 8484 square miles
2001 - 8006 square miles
Looking at the numbers it is easy to see that they bounce around quite a bit from year to year. And even though the 2007 and 2008 numbers are quite large they aren't as large as the 2001 and 2002 numbers. So it is hard to make a case that over the last few years that the size of the dead zone is getting larger.
Now let's look at the same numbers with the totals for ethanol production added.
2009 - 3000 square miles - 10,758,258,000 gallons
2008 - 7988 square miles - 9,000,000,000 gallons
2007 - 7903 square miles - 6,500,000,000 gallons
2006 - 6662 square miles - 4,855,000,000 gallons
2005 - 4564 square miles - 3,904,000,000 gallons
2004 - 5800 square miles - 3,400,000,000 gallons
2003 - 3220 square miles - 2,800,000,000 gallons
2002 - 8484 square miles - 2,130,000,000 gallons
2001 - 8006 square miles - 1,770,000,000 gallons
As you can see ethanol production was five times greater last year than it was in 2002 when the record was set. It is hard to see any direct correlation between ethanol production and the size of the dead zone.
This year NOAA is predicting the dead zone will be larger than average.
And just how did they come up with that number?
And yet they say that nutrient runoff is less this year than in years past.
It is hard to understand how they came up with a higher than average prediction based on lower than average nutrient runoff.
It is worth noting that last year they predicted the dead zone would measure between 7,450 and 8,456 square miles. The actual size turned out to be less than half that at 3,000 square miles.
In 2008 they predicted the dead zone would measure 8,800 square miles and the actual size turned out to be right at 8,000 square miles. So they are usually closer than they were last year. But I have been watching this for several years now and the prediction is always higher than the actual total turns out to be. The problem with that is that the prediction always gets more attention focused on it than the actual total does. So the public is left with the impression that the dead zone just keeps growing and growing.
This year is no exception. I have seen several articles in the news suggesting that the size of the dead zone is growing because of ethanol production. I have looked at the numbers before and honestly it is hard to make a case that the dead zone is growing and even harder to make the case that ethanol is having an effect. First let's look at the size of the dead zone over the last few years.
2009 - 3000 square miles
2008 - 7988 square miles
2007 - 7903 square miles
2006 - 6662 square miles
2005 - 4564 square miles
2004 - 5800 square miles
2003 - 3220 square miles
2002 - 8484 square miles
2001 - 8006 square miles
Looking at the numbers it is easy to see that they bounce around quite a bit from year to year. And even though the 2007 and 2008 numbers are quite large they aren't as large as the 2001 and 2002 numbers. So it is hard to make a case that over the last few years that the size of the dead zone is getting larger.
Now let's look at the same numbers with the totals for ethanol production added.
2009 - 3000 square miles - 10,758,258,000 gallons
2008 - 7988 square miles - 9,000,000,000 gallons
2007 - 7903 square miles - 6,500,000,000 gallons
2006 - 6662 square miles - 4,855,000,000 gallons
2005 - 4564 square miles - 3,904,000,000 gallons
2004 - 5800 square miles - 3,400,000,000 gallons
2003 - 3220 square miles - 2,800,000,000 gallons
2002 - 8484 square miles - 2,130,000,000 gallons
2001 - 8006 square miles - 1,770,000,000 gallons
As you can see ethanol production was five times greater last year than it was in 2002 when the record was set. It is hard to see any direct correlation between ethanol production and the size of the dead zone.
This year NOAA is predicting the dead zone will be larger than average.
Scientists are predicting the area could measure between 6,500 and 7,800 square miles, or an area roughly the size of the state of New Jersey. The average of the past five years is approximately 6,000 square miles.
And just how did they come up with that number?
This forecast is based on Mississippi River nutrient flows compiled annually by the U.S. Geological Survey. Dead zones off the coast of Louisiana and Texas are caused by nutrient runoff, principally from agricultural activity, which stimulates an overgrowth of algae that sinks, decomposes, and consumes most of the life-giving oxygen supply in the water.
And yet they say that nutrient runoff is less this year than in years past.
“The 2010 spring nutrient load transported to the northern Gulf of Mexico is about 11 percent less than the average over the last 30 years,” said Matthew Larsen, Ph.D., USGS associate director for water.
It is hard to understand how they came up with a higher than average prediction based on lower than average nutrient runoff.
It is worth noting that last year they predicted the dead zone would measure between 7,450 and 8,456 square miles. The actual size turned out to be less than half that at 3,000 square miles.
In 2008 they predicted the dead zone would measure 8,800 square miles and the actual size turned out to be right at 8,000 square miles. So they are usually closer than they were last year. But I have been watching this for several years now and the prediction is always higher than the actual total turns out to be. The problem with that is that the prediction always gets more attention focused on it than the actual total does. So the public is left with the impression that the dead zone just keeps growing and growing.